Voice of People Report, 12 September :

Global oil prices remain above $100 a barrel as escalating conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt major shipping routes and raise fears of a prolonged energy supply crisis.

Brent crude fell on Friday but remained at around $104.35 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate dropped to about $99.07. Despite Friday’s decline, both benchmarks were heading for weekly gains of more than 8%.

The latest pressure on oil markets is being driven by growing risks around two of the world’s most important maritime routes—the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The Strait of Hormuz previously carried roughly one-fifth of global daily oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. But shipping activity has fallen sharply amid attacks and military confrontation in the region. Preliminary tracking data showed only seven vessel transits through the strait on Thursday, compared with 11 the previous day.

The situation has also affected Saudi Arabia’s oil production. According to the International Energy Agency, Saudi crude supply fell by around 2.3 million barrels a day in August to 6 million barrels per day, its lowest level in more than three decades, following attacks on energy facilities.

The IEA has now warned that global oil supply in 2026 could fall by 5.7 million barrels per day, or about 6%, as the conflict delays the return of normal Gulf oil flows. The agency says fuel inventories are being depleted rapidly as supply falls faster than demand.

The consequences are already being felt beyond the oil market.

US diesel prices have risen above $6 a gallon for the first time, increasing costs for freight, agriculture, shipping and other industries that depend heavily on diesel fuel.

Higher energy costs could also intensify inflation around the world. Transport and production costs are likely to rise if oil and refined fuel prices remain elevated, putting additional pressure on households and businesses.

European policymakers are already watching the situation closely. Two European Central Bank policymakers said on Friday that further interest-rate increases could become necessary if higher energy prices continue to push inflation higher.

There is, however, a sign of possible relief. Oil prices fell on Friday after reports that Middle Eastern foreign ministers were exploring a temporary arrangement with Iran to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

But the wider security situation remains highly uncertain.

For consumers, businesses and governments, the central question is no longer simply how high oil prices will go, but how long the disruption to global energy supplies will last.